Work in Progress

Spatial Equilibrium and the Regional Effects of Trade Liberalization (JMP)

[revisions requested at Economía LACEA Journal]

This paper uses the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and granular data on Mexican municipalities to study the local effects of trade liberalization on college wage premia, housing costs, and urban amenities between 1990 and 2010. I measure local exposure to international trade by constructing a market access database of each municipality's lowest-cost route to the closest US truck port. I find that municipalities facing larger trade exposure experienced: (1) declines in local wage differences between college and noncollege graduates, both in nominal and real terms; (2) smaller increases in local urban amenities. I interpret these results under the notion of spatial equilibrium in which non-monetary urban amenities compensate for gaps in real wages across cities.

Working paper

Inward Foreign Direct Investment, Superstar Firms and Wage Inequality between Firms: Evidence from European Regions (with Iulia Siedschlag)

[revisions requested at The World Economy]

This paper empirically investigates the impact of inward foreign direct investment, with a focus on multinational firms holding dominant market shares (i.e. superstar firms), on wage dispersion between firms across European regions. The analysis uses firm-level data from the ORBIS Europe data set over 2012-2021 combined with a range of economic and social data at the regional level. Using a shift-share instrumental variables approach, we find that foreign direct investment, particularly international superstar firms, contributed to increased wage inequality between firms across European regions.

Working paper

Regional Industry Transformation, Labor Demand, and Local Gender Gaps

[revisions requested at Journal of Regional Science]

Using census microdata for Mexico during 1990-2010, this paper documents a disproportionate increase in female-to-male gaps in working hours in smaller compared to larger municipalities. This coincides with a more rapid increase in the share of services in smaller locations that initially specialized in primary activities and manufacturing. Motivated by these stylized facts, I quantify the impact of industry-specific labor demand shocks on local gender gaps in working hours across municipality sizes. I find that the interaction between industry specializations, industry differences in female labor intensities, and the rise of the service economy boosted female employment in smaller cities.

The Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Labor Market Outcomes, Job Satisfaction and Perceived  Health: Evidence from an Australian Panel (with Dora Tuda)

Despite the increasing popularity of the Bartik-style labor demand shocks, little is known about the exact interpretation of their source of variation. This paper studies the empirical link between local productivity changes and Bartik shocks in Europe between 2012 and 2020 by constructing regional productivity measures based on firm-level revenue total factor productivity (TFP) for ten European countries. I find there is a weak empirical relationship between the Bartik shocks and changes in regional productivity. By contrast, I find that changes in regional productivity are more strongly related to the competitive effect of the shift-share model that gains relevance where regional employment grows faster than employment growth in the same industry at the national level.

Do We Know What Hit Us? Bartik Shocks, Labor Demand, and Local Productivity in Europe (with Ilias Kostarakos)

Despite the increasing popularity of the Bartik-style labor demand shocks, little is known about the exact interpretation of their source of variation. This paper studies the empirical link between local productivity changes and Bartik shocks in Europe between 2012 and 2020 by constructing regional productivity measures based on firm-level revenue total factor productivity (TFP) for ten European countries. I find there is a weak empirical relationship between the Bartik shocks and changes in regional productivity. By contrast, I find that changes in regional productivity are more strongly related to the competitive effect of the shift-share model that gains relevance where regional employment grows faster than employment growth in the same industry at the national level.

Gender Gaps in the Labor Market Effects of COVID-19: Evidence from Mexico

This paper analyzes the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on labor market outcomes for men and women in Mexico. Using a large longitudinal dataset and an event-study design, I find that the labor effects of the pandemic differed by gender and changed considerably over time. While men temporarily suffered from a higher probability of unemployment, women experienced greater and more persistent declines in labor force participation. By exploring the heterogeneity of the effects across sub-samples, I show that these disparities in the recovery of labor participation are mainly driven by increased childcare needs and are linked to women being over-represented in the informal and part-time workforce.

Working paper